What is the exact state of Indian economy?

We conclude the exact state of Indian economy on two parts, the first where Indian economy improving and later where the indicators are bad.

Improvement in Indian Economy

Post implementation of Demonetization (Nov. 2016) and Tax Reforms like GST (Jul. 2017), most economists had predicted a short term disruption and few quarters of muted growth, before long term benefits kick-in. We seem to be nearing the end of that period and starting the recovery to higher levels of GDP growth.

• Forecast by “The Economist” puts India back as world’s fastest growing major economy by 2018

  

• Exports are consistently increasing - in 2017, exports grew by 12% YoY
• This is higher than China’s (8.5%) but lower than a few other emerging economies which clocked more than 15%
  (in absolute value, India’s exports are only about one-tenth of China’s)

• Exports are increasing at a higher pace than Imports
• Overall Trade deficit which was in a free fall from 2006 to 2012, has been consistently reducing

• Since 2014
• Inflation has been consistently falling
• FDI has been consistently increasing
• Forex Reserves have been increasing and have crossed $400 billion
• Ease of Doing Business Ranking improved by 42 places – improvement of 30 places within one year is highest jump by any country ever – is expected to attract more investment and economic opportunities.
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• By next year, Indian economy (currently in Top 7), is projected to break into Top 5
• In next 10 years, it is expected reach Top 3.

• In next three years, global economy is expected to increase by another $6.5 trillion
• As per IMF and World Bank, third largest contribution to this growth will come from India alone
• India is expected to generate more economic growth than entire Euro Zone

Areas where economy performing bad

• International Monetary Fund: IMF projected India to grow at 6.7% in 2017 and 7.4% in 2018, which are 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points less than the earlier projections. IMF lowers India’s growth projection, attributes it to demonetisation, GST.
• For Ease of Doing Bussiness: It only measures the index considering only two citie, Mumbai and Delhi, where no more industries can be accomodated. The reality of doing business in India , The World Bank’s “ease of doing business” report faces tricky questions.
• World Economic Forum: Slipped below China and Pakistan in Inclusive Development Index. Hours before Modi's Davos pitch, WEF rates India below Pak & China in inclusive development , India slips 21 slots on WEF Gender Gap index 2017.

1. Export Sector - While the exports have headed upwards in all major South Asian Economies, they are scenario is still lull in India. ‘Export growth slowdown disquieting’, India can't blame global environment alone for poor export performance: Crisil
2. Non- Peforming Assets at an all time high. Also writting-off corporate loans is a necessary(due to vested interests) but same for the farmers is termed as moral hazard. ‘Bad loans to rise to ₹9.5 lakh cr. by March’, Rs. 1.14 lakh crores bad loans written off during 2012-15.
3. IIP (Index of Industrial Production): The 8.4% of November is primarily due to base effect and not any real progress of monumental scale. Base effect, capital goods power IIP growth for November
4. CPI(Consumer Price Index) and WPI (Wholesale Price Index): Hitting upwards and will impact common man’s pocket the most. Wholesale inflation touches 6-month high in October, Food prices spur CPI inflation to 3.58%.
5. Fiscal and Revenue Deficit: Most likely to breach the target of 3.2%. Fiscal deficit hits 96% of FY18 target, Avoid the adventurous path
6. Deregulation of Diesel and LPG Subsidies: Well the Achhe Din have arrived for consumers. They have to pay higher prices for gas and oil even when the international prices are all time low since 2008. LPG prices hiked by Rs 93 in Delhi; ATF prices raised by 2%; Consumers slam hike in price of LPG cylinders
7. Job Creation: Everything is out in open! According to Mr. Prime Minister, selling Pakodas is a good job. Also his ministers say that losing job is good as they want us to be job creators and no job seekers. Where the jobs are: on the unemployment rate, Only A Chaiwala Can Advise Youth To Sell Pakoda: Hardik Patel's Dig At PM Modi , Lost Your Job? Piyush Goyal Thinks That's a 'Very Good Sign', A misleading story of job creation
8. Stock Markets: They are soaring as the Indian Companies are not willing to put their money in the economy due the fallacy of the policies of the current government and saddled with huge NPA’s, About 8 lakh crore was the cash was invested in the market by the corporates in July, 2017. ‘Investors may as well put money in bank, play golf’